I love stats. I don't love sports because of stats but statistics is one of the love languages I use to convey my love of sports.
Some of my favorite stats are the ones I make up like the STBFI Or the WHYDFML Index that is reference in the title of this post. The STBFI stands for Soon To Be Fired Index and WHYDFML stands for What Have You Done For Me Lately,
The STBFI is straightforward, forward it is a list of the major coaches and managers in a city, (for me it's Chicago )in order of the likelihood that they will be the next person on the list to be fired or otherwise leave their position. The WHYDFML (pronounced y dee eff em el) is actually a name for many statistics that measure productivity from most to least recent.
Each Sunday during the college football season, The Associated Press releases a poll of the top 25 teams in College football. I decided to look out this past Sunday's rankings thtough the lens of one of the WHYDFML indices.
This particular index takes the results of the last 5 games and scores them this way. A win in the most recent game counts as 5 wins whereas a loss in the least recent game counts as only 1 loss. In cases of ties a tie would be treated as 1/2 the points in the win column and 1/2 the points in the loss column . You then fihure out the win percentage by taking the adjusted win amount and dividing it by the adjusted total game amount.
For example, if there are 4 teams that are 4-1 in their 5 most recent games (let's call them Teams A through E), and each one of them lost a different game on the time line between most and least recent they would all have different winning percentages in their WHYDFML Index.
Let's say Team A just lost their most recent game after winning the previous four. Their results would wook like this with the point value for the loss or win in parentheses:
L(5)W(4)W(3)W(2)W (1)
This would make Team 10-5 with a winning percentage of .667 (10/15)
If Team B won 3 games in a row, then lost, and then won again, their results, adjusted record and winning percentage would look like this
W(5)L(4) W(3) W(2) W(1) 11-4 ..733
Team C
W (5) W(4) L (3) W(2) W (1) 12-3 .800
Team D
W (5) W (4) W (3) L (2) W (1) 13-2 .867
Team E
W (5) W(4) W(3) W (2) L (1) 14-1 .933
Now that we have a better understanding of the WHYDFML index, we can compare the AP top 25 using said index. At this point in the season, most teams have played 2 games. Some, like Notre Dame, have only played one, and some, like Iowa State, have already played 3. In order to use a record over the last 5 games, we will need the results of the last 2-4 games of the previous season, including bowl games and playoffs. I will list each team from the best to worst by its WHYDFML winning percentage, with the best ranking breaking any ties.
Team C L5R L5C WHYDFML AP Rank
Ohio State 2-0 5-0 1.000 WWWWW 15-0 1.000 1
LSU 2-0 5-0 1.000 WWWWW 15-0 1.000 3
Illinois 2-0 5-0 1.000 WWWWW 15-0 1.000 9
Missouri 2-0 5-0 1.000 WWWWW 15-0 1.000 25
Iowa State 3-0 4-1 .800 WWWWL 14-1 .933 14
Ole Miss 2-0 4-1 .800 WWWWL 14-1 .933 17
South Florida 2-0 4-1 .800 WWWLW 13-2 .867 18
Penn State 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 2
Oregon 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 4
Georgia 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 6
South Carolina 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 11
Tennessee 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 15
Utah 2-0 3-2 .600 WWWLL 12-3 .800 20
Texas Tech 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 21
Auburn 2-0 4-1 .800 WWLWW 12-3 .800 24
Florida State 2-0 3-2 .600 WWLWL 11-4 .733 10
Indiana 2-0 3-2 .600 WWLWL 11-4 .733 22
Miami (FL) 2-0 3-2 .600 WWLLW 10-5 .667 5
Oklahoma 2-0 3-2 .600 WWLLW 10-5 .667 13
Michigan 1-1 4-1 .800 LWWWW 10-5 .667 23
Texas A&M 2-0 2-3 .400 WWLLL 9-6 .600 16
Texas 1-1 3-2 .600 WLLWW 8-7 .533 7
Clemson 1-1 2-3 .400 WLLWL 7-8 .467 12
Alabama 1-1 2-3 .400 WLLWL 7-8 .467 19
Notre Dame 0-1 3-2 .600 LLWWW 6-9 .400 8
Notre Dame by virtue of their loss in the CFP finals, their first week loss to Miami and a second week bye has the lowest percentage of the AP 25. Illinois, Ohio,State, LSU, and Missouri have all won 5 of their last 5 games but if any of them lose this week they will be down near the bottom to .667 and some won’t stay on the AP 25 with a loss.
I meant to share this on Sunday after I did all the research, but had a very busy week. I will try to publish an updated list after the new AP poll comes out tomorrow.
